On June 7, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by .25 basis points to 4.75 per cent. This is the first time that Canada's central bank has raised its trend-setting interest rate since January, when the bank signaled it would conditionally pause its aggressive campaign of rate hikes to tame inflation. After cutting its lending rate to near zero early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times since March 2022. 

According to the Saskatchewan Finance in its 2023-2024 budget forecast, real GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 4.8% increase in 2021 to 1.3% for 2022 and 1.8% in 2024.

The average year-to-date rate of change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (inflation) in June 2023 over June 2022 was 4.9%. The largest contributors were food (9.3%) shelter (6.8%) recreation, education and reading (7.6%), and Health and personal care (6.9%).

May 2023 year-to-date retail trade is up by 2.2% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were new car dealers (18.6%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (2.6%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (25.3%), Health and personal care stores (9.7%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (2.2%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (11.7%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (5.2%), and General merchandise stores (6.7%).
• During the same time period, used car dealers (-22.0%), Gasoline stations (-9.3%), Electronics and appliance stores (-0.2%), Grocery stores (-9.29%), and all other (-18.9%) posted declines.

May 2023 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were up  2.7% from May 2022. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 3.9% while new passenger cars sales were down -10.7%.

May 2023 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 15.8% over the same period in 2022. Within restaurant receipts all sub-categories saw year-to-date increases: Special food services (35.5%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (10.5%), Full-service restaurants (14.0%), and Limited-service eating places (15.4%).

May 2023 year-to-date manufacturing sales are up by 4.3% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were Food manufacturing sales (13.1%), Machinery manufacturing sales (26.1%), and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (8.4%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were limited to All other Manufacturing sales (-3.2%).

May 2023 year-to-date wholesale trade was up  46.1% over the same period in 2022.

• Farm product merchant wholesalers (86.8%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (8.9%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (35.8%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (10.6%), and all other (61.2%) all posted increases while Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (-4.7%), saw a decline.

Total International merchandise exports were up 6.8% year-to-date June 2023 over June 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (41.3%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (66.1%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (25.6%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (15.4%), Motor vehicles and parts (27.8%), Consumer goods (44.5%), and Special transactions (9.8%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were Energy products (-6.9%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (-13.1%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-32.7%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-0.8%), and Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (-8.0%).

Year-to-date July 2023 construction employment was down -5,629 or -11.7% from the same period in 2022 in tandem with slowing residential construction.

July 2023, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -132 units or -6.0% over the same period in 2022. Year-to-date increases were observed in semi-detached (4 units or 4.7%) and apartment and other types (315 units or 30.4%). Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-344 units or -42.9%) and row (-107 units or -38.4%).

The average year-to-date Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite Price is down from $326,929 in July 2022 to $324,700 in July 2023 or -0.7% as higher borrowing costs reduce demand for resale homes.

June 2023 year-to-date building permits are up 5.5% over the same period in 2022. Sub-sectors that posted increases were Industrial (1.6%), commercial (14.1%), and institutional and governmental (57.3%). During the same time period, Residential (-6.6%), posted a decline. 

July 2023 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 557 positions or 2.9% over same period in 2022.

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Q2 2023 Provincial population was up persons or 2.3% over 2022 Q2 to 1,200,540, the first time it has exceeded 1.2 million. In addition, the provincial population grew by 5,671 people over the first quarter of 2022. 

• Driving population growth was post-COVID resurgent international immigration as borders re-opened. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.