On June 7, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by .25 basis points to 4.75 per cent. This is the first time that Canada's central bank has raised its trend-setting interest rate since January, when the bank signaled it would conditionally pause its aggressive campaign of rate hikes to tame inflation. After cutting its lending rate to near zero early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times since March 2022. 

According to the Conference Board of Canada in its forecast, GDP is predicted to slow down significantly from the 7.9% increase in 2021 to 3.6% for 2022.

The average year-to-date rate of change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (inflation) in April 2023 over April 2022 was 5.5%. The largest contributors were food (9.6%), transportation (6.4%), recreation, education and reading (7.2%), and health and personal care (6.8%).

March 2023 year-to-date retail trade is up by 5.2% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were new car dealers (22.6%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.9%), Electronics and appliance stores (8.1%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (26.4%), Health and personal care stores (13.2%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (3.5%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (11.0%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (3.9%), General merchandise stores (8.6%).
•   During the same time period Used car dealers (-17.0%), Gasoline stations (-1.0%), Grocery stores (-1.03%), and all other (-44.0%) were down.

March 2023 year-to-date new motor vehicle (units) sales were down -1.3% from March 2022. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were down -0.2% while new passenger cars sales were also down -13.0%.

March 2023 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 19.8% over the same period in 2022. Within restaurant receipts, all sub-categories posted increases: Special food services (42.1%), Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (18.1%), Full-service restaurants (20.0%), and Limited-service eating places (17.8%).

March 2023 year-to-date manufacturing sales are up by 8.8% over the same period in 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were wood manufacturing sales (17.6%), Machinery manufacturing sales (41.0%), Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (11.9%), and All other Manufacturing sales (0.4%).

March 2023 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 45.9% over the same period in 2022.

• Farm product merchant wholesalers (64.9%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (8.8%), Agricultural supplies merchant wholesalers (3.2%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (47.6%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (14.8%), All other (51.4%), all posted increases.

Total International merchandise exports were up 24.6% year-to-date April 2023 over April 2022.

• Sub-sectors that posted increases were Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (68.5%), Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (10.6%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (77.1%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (3.4%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (25.7%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (22.5%), Motor vehicles and parts (18.0%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (172.0%), Consumer goods (16.0%), and Special transactions (7.3%).
• Sub-sectors that posted decreases were Energy products (-3.2%) and Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-30.9%).           

Year-to-date May 2023 construction employment was down by -4,960 or -10.7% from the same period in 2022.

May 2023, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -289 units or -20.7% over the same period in 2022 Year-to-date increases were observed in semi-detached (4 units or 8.0%) and apartment and other types (49 units or 8.2%). Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-251 units or -46.1%) and row (-91 units or -44.0%).

The average year-to-date Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite Price is down from $324,380 in May 2022 to $321,660 in May 2023 or -0.8% as higher borrowing costs weakened demand.

April 2023 year-to-date building permits are down -36.0% over the same period in 2022.  All sub-components saw year-to-date declines: residential (-31.7%), industrial (-23.9%), commercial (-54.8%), and institutional and governmental (-13.4%).

May 2023 year-to-date employment in Information, culture and recreation was up 640 positions or 3.5% over same period in 2022.

Q2 2023 Provincial population was up persons or 2.3% over 2022 Q2 to 1,200,540, the first time it has exceeded 1.2 million. In addition, the provincial population grew by 5,671 people over the first quarter of 2022. 

• Driving population growth was post-COVID resurgent international immigration as borders re-opened. Net inter-provincial migration has been negative every quarter since Q2 2013.